The US and China will compete for influence: can Ukraine withstand the storm?

The increasing influence of China on the global geopolitical stage suggests that the new administration in the White House will seek to address the fate of the war in Ukraine through the lens of relations with the PRC.

What about Beijing? What benefits does Russia's strongest partner gain from the war in Europe? Is it true that Xi Jinping is keeping Putin from nuclear madness? How will a tariff war between the two greatest economic powers of the world unfold? These and other questions were discussed by "Telegraph" with the expert from the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, Associate Professor of International Relations at NaUKMA, Dmitry Yefremov.

"Xi Jinping will support Putin, not pressure him"

– Dmitry, on January 20 Trump was inaugurated. Many experts and commentators say that the fate of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be determined not in talks between Trump and Putin, but in communications between Washington and Beijing. Do you agree with such assessments?

– In my opinion, the connection between the events surrounding the war and US-China relations is very weak. The dialogue between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be conducted on a separate track, and the Ukrainian crisis (as it is described by the Chinese) will be represented very poorly in this process.

– Why?

– Because both Trump and Xi Jinping, in fact, have very few levers to influence Putin's behavior. Furthermore, Xi Jinping does not have well-established contact with the Ukrainian side. Formally, we always say that we maintain contacts at the highest level; however, this dialogue is rather chaotic and lacks a systematic approach. China is trying to distance itself from Ukraine, so there is no mutual understanding between us. On the other hand, there is enough mutual understanding between Russia and China. And I cannot say that China has decisive levers of influence on the RF.

Yes, to a significant extent, Russia depends on China, but China has never used these tools to push Russia to radically change its position. Moreover, the RF and China describe their relationship as strategic coordination. This means that on sensitive issues for either party, the other side will make concessions. So, if it is important for Putin to achieve a significant outcome in the war with Ukraine, then Xi Jinping will support him rather than pressure him.

– Let's outline China's role in the modern world. Has the country indeed gained economic and political power so quickly that it is now a significant factor in changing the existing world order?

– China represents the second-largest economy in the world by power and capabilities. Nominally, China has not yet caught up with the US (the Chinese economy is about 60-70% of the American). However, the size of the economy does not simultaneously mean its efficiency. The American economy, in terms of GDP per capita, significantly exceeds the Chinese one. This indicator is approximately 5-6 times higher in the US than in China. So, the gap is large, and China has room for development.

Now about China's influence. In the US, China is viewed as a competitor and a threat. Given that the global media are somehow tied to the US as a global leader, we in Ukraine also fall under this narrative and often view China through American lenses. At the same time, China itself would prefer to be approached differently.

– And how exactly?

– It would like to be seen as an alternative to the US. Although China does not emphasize its alternative nature, it focuses on offering a different path, alternative opportunities associated with a specific philosophy of world order development. In Chinese terms, this is described as building a community with a shared future for mankind.

– What is the essence of this alternative?

– This is a specific Chinese approach, within which the very idea remains unclear. It is a deliberate policy aimed at ensuring that every country wishing to connect with China and strengthen relations can find its own place, presence, and format.

– Is China's economic power already sufficient to aim for an alternative leadership role to the US?

– Within the dominant American discourse, we view China as a country on the brink of economic crisis or even collapse. Indeed, Chinese authorities have recently struggled to demonstrate effective economic recovery and stable growth. Nevertheless, China, being a more centralized country than the US, has broader opportunities to redistribute resources within its economy. Unlike Western countries, China has a greater potential to adjust its economy and maintains stronger control over its economic system. Therefore, even if economic indicators in China deteriorate (GDP dynamics, youth unemployment, levels of debt in the private and public sectors), China has enough tools to maintain overall control over the situation. Thus, China demonstrates its ability to rectify its economic failures. I would not rush to conclude that, given some time, China will experience economic collapse.

"China has learned from Russia's attack"

– What does China need to fully claim an alternative pole in the world? For example, a war over Taiwan?

– The war over Taiwan is driven not so much by China's desire to demonstrate its potential but by the need to achieve internal goals proclaimed within the country. These goals boil down to restoring complete unity and control over territories lost during a century of so-called colonial humiliation, which began in the mid-19th century and lasted about 100 years. According to the doctrine of the Chinese Communist Party, it is the CCP that has managed to revive and unite China. And Taiwan, in essence, remains the only territory of China that has not been reintegrated due to external support. Therefore, Taiwan is a national fixation for China.

I cannot definitively say whether China is ready to regain control over Taiwan by military means. The military potential for this has been accumulated, but there seems to be another opinion within the Chinese leadership. It holds that Taiwan can be peacefully reunited with China. This opinion is based on the fact that a significant portion of the Taiwanese population still identifies as Chinese, as people belonging to the great Chinese culture. Moreover, the uncertainty created by the US under Trump will push the Taiwanese population to more frequently consider the idea of reunification with mainland China as a certain norm.

– But without war?

– China is drawing certain conclusions from the Russian attack on Ukraine. China agrees that the attack was poorly planned and based on inadequate, unrealistic predictions.

Ukraine, in some sense, resembles Taiwan, but geographically the differences are vast. Taiwan is an island, making it easier to blockade. Taiwan has no land borders with other countries in the region, so ensuring support from an alternative camp is practically impossible. Therefore, if China decides to pursue reunification by military means, it can only be openly obstructed when the US or other regional countries "join" this war on Taiwan's side.

"The great tariff war"

– Let's then predict the relations between Beijing and Washington during Trump's term. Will they escalate, considering Trump's particular negotiation style, or will the leaders be able to reach an agreement?

– From China's perspective, everything is more or less clear. For China, the US presents an obstacle to its regional and global leadership. The US is the country that hinders the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China, threatens China's economic system, and poses a threat to the Chinese Communist Party from a political standpoint. Therefore, China's policy towards the US is evident. But since China is still the weaker player, it tries to adapt to the situation to avoid provoking the US.

Now from the US perspective. Given Trump's statements and those of his team, the US will focus primarily on countering China and strengthening its position in the Indo-Pacific region. This is the method by which containment of China will be carried out.

– Specifically?

– We can assume that containment will take the form of a tariff war. Despite Trump's statements about friendly relations with Xi Jinping, and despite their declared intentions to organize a meeting, at such a meeting Trump will press Xi Jinping. And Xi Jinping will refuse to make concessions. In response, Trump will have moral grounds to launch a full-scale economic war against China. Most likely, this will happen as it did during Trump's previous term, when the US imposed increased tariffs on imports of goods produced in China. How effective this strategy is remains to be seen. But it is likely just the first step for Trump.

In the previous phase, the US already attempted to impose increased tariffs on the Chinese and compel them to buy more American goods to balance the trade deficit between the two countries. However, over time, China has strengthened its resilience to external pressure and found ways to deliver Chinese goods to American markets while circumventing US customs. Primarily, this is done through Mexico, partially through Southeast Asian countries (Vietnam, Japan), with which the US has signed free trade agreements.

The Trump administration evidently understands that targeting only Chinese goods is not very effective. Therefore, Trump and his team plan to impose a front tariff on all goods imported into the US markets. This policy will certainly negatively impact China's economic dynamics and the economic situation in the partner countries of both the US and China. This will lead to a slowdown in global